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Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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In a training session designed for new risk analysts at a retail bank, the concept of unexpected loss (UL) is being explained by a risk manager. To elucidate the calculation of UL, the manager provides data for a hypothetical loan portfolio:

  • Principal amount of the loan portfolio: SGD 120 million
  • Default rate of the portfolio: 2.5%
  • Recovery rate: 30%
  • 1-year 99% Value-at-Risk (VaR): SGD 9.6 million
  • 1-year 99% Expected Shortfall (ES): SGD 14.8 million

Using the provided data, compute the 1-year unexpected loss (UL) for the loan portfolio at a 99% confidence level.

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