Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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A financial analyst is concerned about the risk in the stock market pertaining to a specific stock. Using the past 12 months' return data for this stock, it has been determined that the historical volatility of the monthly returns is 4.5%. Based on this information, which of the following statements is most likely to be correct?




Explanation:

The correct answer is C, which states that the volatility of the annual returns is 15.6%. This is calculated by taking the square root of time to scale up the monthly volatility to an annual basis. The formula used is Vannual=12×VmonthlyV_{\text{annual}} = \sqrt{12} \times V_{\text{monthly}}, where VmonthlyV_{\text{monthly}} is the historical volatility of the monthly returns. In this case, Vannual=12×0.045=0.156V_{\text{annual}} = \sqrt{12} \times 0.045 = 0.156 or 15.6%.

Option A and B are incorrect because implied volatility is derived from the market price of an option and is not directly related to historical volatilities. Implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of future volatility, which is embedded in the option's price.

Option D is incorrect because it scales the volatility linearly with time, which is not the appropriate method. The correct approach is to use the square root of time to annualize the volatility, as volatility is not linearly scalable with time due to the compounding effect on returns.