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A fund manager is analyzing the actual profit and the historical volatility of earnings for shares of VMG company. At the end of June 2021, VMG shares were valued at INR 280 each, and by the end of December 2021, their value had increased to INR 320 per share. The manager has observed that the stock's earnings experienced monthly fluctuations at a rate of 2.76% over this six-month period. Given that compounding is continuous and the stock’s earnings are independent over time, calculate the actual profit made over the six-month period and determine the annualized volatility of the stock’s earnings.
Explanation:
The correct answer is C. The realized return is calculated using the formula , where is the time period in years, is the initial stock price, and is the stock price at the end of the period. Given years (6 months), , and , the realized return is or 26.7%.
The annual volatility is calculated by scaling up the monthly volatility using the square root of time rule, which is , where is the monthly volatility. With a monthly volatility of 2.76%, the annual volatility is or 9.6%.
Option A is incorrect because it calculates the realized return as a simple percentage change rather than using the logarithmic return formula. Option B incorrectly assumes that annual volatility is simply 12 times the monthly volatility without applying the square root of time rule. Option D is incorrect for the same reason as B regarding the annual volatility calculation.