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Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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A hedge fund's market risk department is in the process of developing stress test scenarios to assess the impact of different market factors on their portfolio of agency-backed Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). The objective is to identify factors that could potentially result in a higher rate of prepayments for the MBS in the portfolio. With the assumption that all other conditions remain unchanged, which of the following factors is most likely to lead to an increase in prepayments within the portfolio?

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Explanation:

B is correct. A decrease in the average loan-to-value ratio is likely to cause curtailments, which are partial prepayments, therefore increasing prepayments. A decrease in defaults usually decreases prepayments, as there would be fewer loans that are paid off early due to default. An increase in market interest rates typically leads to a decrease in prepayments, as borrowers are less likely to refinance their mortgages when rates are higher. An increase in the supply of new houses can decrease the value of existing houses, which may slow down refinancing activity for drawing on home equity, thus reducing prepayments.

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