
Explanation:
The question is asking for the conditional probability that a retirement plan beneficiary, selected at random from the sample, will also receive a lump-sum payment given that they have opted for monthly disbursements. The correct answer is B, which is 42%.
The explanation for this answer is based on the concept of conditional probability. Conditional probability is calculated using the formula P(A | B) = P(A ∩ B) / P(B), where P(A | B) is the probability of event A occurring given that event B has occurred, P(A ∩ B) is the probability of both events A and B occurring together, and P(B) is the probability of event B occurring.
In this scenario:
From the data provided:
Plugging these values into the formula for conditional probability: P(B | A) = P(A ∩ B) / P(A) = (24/100) / (57/100) = 24/57 ≈ 0.4211, which is approximately 42%.
This calculation shows that if a beneficiary has opted for monthly disbursements, there is a 42% chance that they will also receive a lump-sum payment.
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A pension scheme's risk manager is conducting an annual review of the payout preferences among 100 participants in a retirement plan and observes the following data:
A
24%
B
42%
C
50%
D
56%
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