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Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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A risk analyst is predicting the variability in returns of a stock index for the next trading day using a model known as GARCH (1,1). The GARCH (1,1) model employed is represented by the following equation: σt2=αt−1+βσt−12+ϵt\sigma_t^2 = \alpha_{t-1} + \beta \sigma_{t-1}^2 + \epsilon_tσt2​=αt−1​+βσt−12​+ϵt​ In this model:

  • σt2\sigma_t^2σt2​ represents the index variance on day ttt
  • rt−1r_{t-1}rt−1​ signifies the return on day t−1t-1t−1
  • σt−12\sigma_{t-1}^2σt−12​ stands for the volatility on day t−1t-1t−1

Assuming that the expected return stays constant, which specific values for the parameters α\alphaα and β\betaβ are necessary to ensure the stability of the GARCH (1,1) model?

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