A fund manager is analyzing the correlation between the 1-year default risk of a longevity bond from an insurance company and the stock market's performance. To aid this, the manager has created a probability matrix derived from initial research data showing the 1-year probabilities for different scenarios:

Longevity bond	Market returns	Probability
No default	20% increase	61%
Default	20% increase	1%
No default	20% decrease	35%
Default	20% decrease	3%

Using this probability matrix, calculate the probability that the longevity bond will default within a year, given that the market experiences a 20% decline in that year.