
Explanation:
The expected return for Stock A can be calculated using the single-factor and multifactor models of risk and return as follows:
Baseline Expected Return: The baseline expected return for Stock A is given as 5.0%.
Factor Betas: The factor betas for industrial production and interest rate are 1.30 and -0.75, respectively.
Baseline Factors: Under the baseline scenario, industrial production growth is 3.0%, and the interest rate is 1.5%.
Forecasted Factors: The economic research department forecasts industrial production to grow by 4.2% and interest rates to increase by 25 basis points to 1.75%.
Factor Shocks: The "shocks" or changes in factors from the baseline scenario are:
Calculating New Expected Return: The formula to calculate the new expected return is:
Plugging in the values:
The calculated expected return for Stock A for the next year, based on the forecasted changes in macroeconomic factors, is 6.37%. This corresponds to option B (6.4%), which is the closest to the calculated value. The slight discrepancy between the calculated value and the option provided could be due to rounding during the calculation process.
Ultimate access to all questions.
No comments yet.
A financial analyst is examining the sensitivity of stock A's returns to various macroeconomic factors. The factor betas for stock A have been determined as follows: βindustrial production = 1.30, βinterest rate = -0.75
Currently, the analyst assumes a 3.0% increase in industrial production and an interest rate of 1.5%. Under these conditions, the expected return for stock A is 5.0%. The economic research team is forecasting an improvement in economic conditions for the upcoming year, predicting a 4.2% rise in industrial production and a 25 basis points increase in interest rates to 1.75%. Considering these new projections, what is the expected return for stock A in the next year?
A
4.8%
B
6.4%
C
6.8%
D
7.8%