Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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A risk management professional at a bank is attempting to determine the distribution of potential losses stemming from operational risks (e.g., internal fraud, system failures, and other disruptions). However, the professional is facing a challenge due to the limited availability of historical data on these types of losses. Considering this constraint, what is the most effective approach to accurately estimate the severity of these operational losses?




Explanation:

The correct answer to the question is D. The best way to address the issue of limited historical data on operational risk losses is to merge external data from other banks with the bank's internal data after making appropriate scale adjustments. This approach is effective because it increases the dataset of historical operational losses, which can help in estimating the bank's loss severity distribution more accurately. The external data needs to be adjusted for size, based on the relative size of the banks' revenues, before being merged with the bank's internal data. This ensures that the data is comparable and relevant to the bank's specific operational risk profile.

The other options are not as suitable:

  • Option A suggests generating additional data using Monte Carlo simulation and merging it with the bank's internal historical data. However, this does not address the issue of incomplete underlying data and may introduce inaccuracies if the simulation is not well-calibrated.
  • Option B proposes estimating the parameters of a Poisson distribution to model the loss severity of operational losses. This is incorrect because lognormal distributions, not Poisson distributions, are generally used for modeling loss severity. Moreover, using distributions does not resolve the issue of incomplete underlying data.
  • Option C involves estimating relevant probabilities using loss information published by credit rating agencies. This is not ideal because credit losses are generally better documented than operational losses within a bank. While external credit ratings provide additional data, they may not be directly applicable to operational loss estimation.

The explanation is based on the principles outlined in the Global Association of Risk Professionals' "Valuation and Risk Models" publication, specifically Chapter 7 on Operational Risk.