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Financial Risk Manager Part 2

Financial Risk Manager Part 2

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The Chief Risk Officer (CRO) at an investment bank has tasked the risk department with assessing the bank’s derivative exposure to a counterparty over a three-year period. The risk department assumes a constant hazard rate process for the counterparty’s default probability. The table below provides trade and forecast data on the CDS spread, expected exposure, and recovery rate for the counterparty:

Year 1Year 2Year 3
Expected positive exposure (AUD million)141414
CDS spread (bps)200300400
Recovery rate (%)807060

The CRO has also provided the following assumptions for the analysis:

  • A credit support annex is in place, requiring the counterparty to post AUD 11 million in collateral to mitigate the exposure.
  • The risk-free interest rate is 3%, with a flat term structure over the three-year period.
  • Both the collateral and expected positive exposure remain constant as projected over the three-year contract duration.
  • The same discount factors are applied to both the expected positive exposure and the collateral.
  • The bank’s annual default probability is 0%.

Using the provided data and assumptions, calculate the unilateral Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) for this derivative position.

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