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The Chief Risk Officer (CRO) at an investment bank has tasked the risk department with assessing the bank’s derivative exposure to a counterparty over a three-year period. The risk department assumes a constant hazard rate process for the counterparty’s default probability. The table below provides trade and forecast data on the CDS spread, expected exposure, and recovery rate for the counterparty:
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | |
---|---|---|---|
Expected positive exposure (AUD million) | 14 | 14 | 14 |
CDS spread (bps) | 200 | 300 | 400 |
Recovery rate (%) | 80 | 70 | 60 |
The CRO has also provided the following assumptions for the analysis:
Using the provided data and assumptions, calculate the unilateral Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) for this derivative position.