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Financial Risk Manager Part 2

Financial Risk Manager Part 2

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  1. Question A risk analyst is working with the Ho-Lee model to construct a binomial interest rate tree. The model uses monthly time steps, with an annualized drift of 80 basis points for the first month and 120 basis points for the second month. The current short-term interest rate is 3.2% per annum, and the annual volatility is 2.1% in basis points. What will be the interest rate at the lowest node at the end of the second month?

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Explanation:

The interest rate at the lowest node after 2 months, based on the Ho-Lee model, is calculated using the formula:

r0+(a1+a22)dtโˆ’ฯƒ22dtr_0 + \left(\frac{a_1 + a_2}{2}\right)dt - \frac{\sigma^2}{2}dtr0โ€‹+(2a1โ€‹+a2โ€‹โ€‹)dtโˆ’2ฯƒ2โ€‹dt

where:

  • r0r_0r0โ€‹ is the current annualized short-term rate (3.2% or 0.032 in decimal form),
  • a1a_1a1โ€‹ is the annualized drift for the first month (0.8% or 0.008 in decimal form),
  • a2a_2a2โ€‹ is the annualized drift for the second month (1.2% or 0.012 in decimal form),
  • dtdtdt is the time step (1 month or 1/12 of a year in this case),
  • ฯƒ\sigmaฯƒ is the annual basis point-volatility (2.1% or 0.021 in decimal form).

Plugging in the values, we get:

0.032+(0.008+0.0122)(112)โˆ’0.02122(112)0.032 + \left(\frac{0.008 + 0.012}{2}\right)(\frac{1}{12}) - \frac{0.021^2}{2}(\frac{1}{12})0.032+(20.008+0.012โ€‹)(121โ€‹)โˆ’20.0212โ€‹(121โ€‹)

=0.032+(0.01)(112)โˆ’(0.000441)(112)= 0.032 + (0.01)(\frac{1}{12}) - (0.000441)(\frac{1}{12})=0.032+(0.01)(121โ€‹)โˆ’(0.000441)(121โ€‹)

=0.032+0.000833โˆ’0.0000367= 0.032 + 0.000833 - 0.0000367=0.032+0.000833โˆ’0.0000367

=0.032+0.000796= 0.032 + 0.000796=0.032+0.000796

=0.032796= 0.032796=0.032796

Converting this back to a percentage, we get 3.2796%, which is approximately 3.28%. However, since the options provided are 1.82%, 2.15%, 2.76%, and 3.03%, and none of these match our calculated value, it seems there might be a mistake in the provided options or in the calculation process described in the file content.

The provided explanation in the file content uses an incorrect formula and calculation method, which leads to the incorrect answer of 2.15% (Option B). The correct formula and calculation process should yield a different result, as shown above.

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