
Explanation:
The correct answer to the question is A, which is CNY 2.52 million. This is calculated by determining the 99% Credit Value at Risk (VaR) for a 1-year zero-coupon bond. The 99% CVaR is defined as the 99th percentile of the unrecovered credit loss minus the Expected Loss (EL).
From the given data:
The 99th percentile of the unrecovered credit loss is calculated as the difference between the face value and the estimated value at the 99% confidence level, multiplied by the probability of default and the recovery rate (1 - recovery rate):
The Expected Loss (EL) is calculated as the product of the probability of default, the loss given default (LGD), and the exposure at default (EAD):
Finally, the 99% CVaR is the difference between the 99th percentile of the unrecovered credit loss and the Expected Loss: \text{CVaR at 99% confidence level} = 6.30 - 3.78 = 2.52 \text{ million}
This calculation leads to the conclusion that the bond's implied 1-year 99% credit VaR is CNY 2.52 million, which corresponds to option A.
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An analyst at an investment company is tasked with determining the 99% credit Value at Risk (VaR) for a single 1-year zero-coupon bond issued by a corporation. To better understand the potential risk, the analyst has gathered the following pertinent information:
The value of the bond at the end of 1 year is influenced solely by the risk of default, and the analyst has predicted that, with a 99% confidence level, the bond's value at the end of 1 year will be CNY 567 million. Given these parameters, what is the implied 1-year 99% credit VaR for the bond?
A
CNY 2.52 million
B
CNY 3.40 million
C
CNY 3.78 million
D
CNY 6.30 million