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Financial Risk Manager Part 2

Financial Risk Manager Part 2

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An analyst at an investment company is tasked with determining the 99% credit Value at Risk (VaR) for a single 1-year zero-coupon bond issued by a corporation. To better understand the potential risk, the analyst has gathered the following pertinent information:

  • The face value of the corporation's 1-year zero-coupon bond is CNY 630 million.
  • The anticipated probability that the bond will default over the next year is 6%.
  • In the event of a default, the bondholder can expect a recovery of 90% of the bond's face value.

The value of the bond at the end of 1 year is influenced solely by the risk of default, and the analyst has predicted that, with a 99% confidence level, the bond's value at the end of 1 year will be CNY 567 million. Given these parameters, what is the implied 1-year 99% credit VaR for the bond?

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