
Explanation:
The correct ranking of the counterparties from most likely to least likely to default is determined by calculating the Distance to Default (DtD) for each company. The DtD measures the number of standard deviations to reach the default threshold, with a higher DtD indicating a lower likelihood of default.
The formula for DtD is simplified to: where:
Using the provided data:
Based on these calculations:
Therefore, the correct answer is A. P; R; Q, with Company P being the most likely to default, followed by Company R, and then Company Q being the least likely.
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In the context of credit risk assessment, the Merton model is often used to estimate the default risk of firms by calculating the 'distance to default.' Consider the following data derived from the Merton model for three counterparties, Company P, Company Q, and Company R. These companies operate within the same industry and do not pay dividends. Based on the calculated distance to default over a 1-year period, how should a credit manager rank these companies in terms of their likelihood of defaulting?
A
P; R; Q
B
Q; P; R
C
Q; R; P
D
R; Q; P