
Explanation:
The expected return for Stock A is calculated by using the factor betas and the changes in the macroeconomic factors from the baseline scenario. The baseline expected return is given as 5.0%. The "shocks" or changes from the baseline are an increase in industrial production by 1.2% (4.2% - 3.0%) and an increase in the interest rate by 0.25% (1.75% - 1.5%).
The formula to calculate the new expected return is:
Plugging in the values:
Thus, the expected return for Stock A for the following year, based on the economic forecast, is 6.37%. The correct answer is B. 6.4%.
An analyst is evaluating how Stock A's returns are influenced by different macroeconomic factors. The sensitivity of Stock A's return to these factors is quantified by the following factor betas:
Currently, it is assumed that a 3.0% increase in industrial production and an interest rate of 1.5% lead to a projected return of 5.0% for Stock A. The economic research team forecasts a significant economic upturn for the next year, expecting a 4.2% increase in industrial production and a 25 basis point rise in interest rates, bringing them to 1.75%. Based on these predictions, what return for Stock A is projected for the upcoming year?
A
4.8%
B
6.4%
C
6.8%
D
7.8%
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