
Explanation:
The correct answer to the question is option B, which estimates a decrease in value of USD 110,000 for portfolio ASD and USD 70,000 for portfolio BTE due to a parallel shift in the yield curve by 200 basis points (bps). The explanation is as follows:
Value Calculation Before Yield Increase: The initial step is to calculate the current value of each portfolio before the yield increase. This is done by discounting the future cash flows of each bond at their respective yields using the formula for the present value of a zero-coupon bond, which is , where is the present value, is the face value, is the yield, and is the time to maturity.
For Portfolio ASD, the value is calculated by summing the present values of Bond 1 and Bond 2:
For Portfolio BTE, the value is calculated for Bond 3:
Duration Calculation: Duration measures the sensitivity of a bond's price to changes in interest rates. The weighted-average duration is calculated for each portfolio by taking the weighted sum of the time to maturity for each bond, weighted by the present value of each bond's cash flow.
Convexity Calculation: Convexity is a measure of the curvature or the rate at which the duration of a bond changes as interest rates change. It provides a more accurate measure of the price sensitivity of a bond to interest rate changes than duration alone.
Estimating the Decrease in Value: The decrease in value due to a change in yield can be estimated using the first-order (duration) and second-order (convexity) approximations. The formula for the change in price due to a change in yield is: where is the change in price, is the initial price, is the change in yield, is the duration, and is the convexity.
For Portfolio ASD, the decrease in value is:
For Portfolio BTE, the decrease in value is:
After calculating these values, the estimated decrease in value for portfolio ASD is USD 110,000, and for portfolio BTE, it is USD 70,000, which corresponds to option B.
This analysis assumes continuous compounding and uses the approximation formulas for duration and convexity to estimate the impact of a parallel shift in the yield curve on the portfolio values.
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A portfolio manager is assessing the impact of changes in yields on two specific portfolios: Portfolio ASD and Portfolio BTE. Portfolio ASD includes two zero-coupon bonds, while Portfolio BTE contains a single zero-coupon bond. The following table provides additional details about these portfolios:
| Portfolio | Components | Yield Per | Maturity (Years) | Face Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio ASD | Bond 1 | 10% | 3 | USD 1,000,000 |
| Portfolio ASD | Bond 2 | 10% | 9 | USD 1,000,000 |
| Portfolio BTE | Bond 3 | 8% | 6 | USD 1,000,000 |
To assess the potential impact of a parallel shift in the yield curve on these portfolios, the manager performs a scenario analysis assuming an increase in yields by 200 basis points across the yield curve. Additionally, the convexity for Portfolio ASD is calculated to be 34.51, while the convexity for Portfolio BTE is 36.00. Based on the assumption of continuous compounding, determine the most accurate estimates for the decrease in the values of both portfolios due to the combined effects of duration and convexity.
A
Portfolio ASD: USD 102,000 Portfolio BTE: USD 65,000
B
Portfolio ASD: USD 110,000 Portfolio BTE: USD 70,000
C
Portfolio ASD: USD 118,000 Portfolio BTE: USD 74,000
D
Portfolio ASD: USD 127,000 Portfolio BTE: USD 79,000