Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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An analyst aims to calculate the cost of a 6-month futures contract for a stock index that currently stands at USD 750. The analyst has the following information: the risk-free interest rate is continuously compounded at an annual rate of 3.5%, and the dividend yield from the stocks in the index is also continuously compounded at an annual rate of 2.0%. Based on this data, what is the value of the 6-month futures contract?




Explanation:

The price of the 6-month futures contract can be determined using the formula for the forward price on a financial asset, which is given by:

Fo,T=Soe(r−q)TFo,T = Soe^{(r-q)T}

where:

  • SoSo is the spot price of the asset.
  • rr is the continuously compounded risk-free interest rate.
  • qq is the continuous dividend yield on the asset.
  • TT is the time until the delivery date in years.

Given the information from the file:

  • The spot price of the stock index (SoSo) is USD 750.
  • The continuously compounded risk-free rate (rr) is 3.5% per year.
  • The continuously compounded dividend yield (qq) is 2.0% per year.
  • The time until delivery (TT) is 0.5 years (6 months).

Plugging these values into the formula, we get:

Fo=750e(0.035−0.02)×0.5Fo = 750e^{(0.035 - 0.02) \times 0.5} Fo=750e0.015×0.5Fo = 750e^{0.015 \times 0.5} Fo=750e0.0075Fo = 750e^{0.0075} Fo≈750×1.0076Fo \approx 750 \times 1.0076 Fo≈755.65Fo \approx 755.65

Therefore, the correct price of the 6-month futures contract is USD 755.65, which corresponds to option B. This calculation is based on the no-arbitrage principle, ensuring that the futures price reflects the cost of carrying the asset until the delivery date, adjusted for dividends and the risk-free rate.