
Explanation:
The probability of exactly two bonds defaulting over the next year is calculated using the Binomial distribution formula, which is applicable because the bond defaults are independent and identically distributed Bernoulli random variables. The formula for the probability of exactly k bond defaults (P(K=k)) is given by:
Where:
Plugging in the values:
This calculation results in a probability of 16.52%, which corresponds to option C (16.5%), making it the correct answer.
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In the context of credit risk analysis, consider a portfolio of bonds. Assuming the probability of default for each bond within the upcoming year is known, calculate the probability that exactly two bonds will be in default during this period.
A
1.9%
B
5.7%
C
16.5%
D
32.5%