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Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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The Prudent Fund, holding assets worth USD 50 million, has recently shown disappointing performance. Consequently, the institutional sales team has proposed merging it with the Aggressive Fund, which is valued at USD 200 million. The Prudent Fund's returns are normally distributed, with an average return of 3% and a standard deviation of 7%. The Aggressive Fund also follows a normal distribution for its returns, with an average return of 7% and a standard deviation of 15%. Both funds are assumed to have independent returns. Management has tasked an analyst with determining the probability that the returns on the merged portfolio would exceed 26%. What probability does the analyst estimate for the combined fund's returns to be above 26%?

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