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A risk analyst is evaluating the market risk associated with a financial portfolio by utilizing two distinct statistical return models: arithmetic returns under the presumption of a normal distribution, and geometric returns under the presumption of a lognormal distribution. Here, the normal distribution implies that returns can take any value in a symmetrical manner around the mean, while the lognormal distribution indicates that returns are positively skewed and multiplicative over time.
The analyst has acquired the following data about the portfolio's performance:
Based on the premise that daily arithmetic and geometric returns are uncorrelated over time (serial independence), which of the subsequent statements is correct?
A
1-day normal 95% VaR = 3.06% and 1-day lognormal 95% VaR = 4.12%
B
1-day normal 95% VaR = 3.57% and 1-day lognormal 95% VaR = 4.41%
C
1-day normal 95% VaR = 4.12% and 1-day lognormal 95% VaR = 3.57%
D
1-day normal 95% VaR = 4.46% and 1-day lognormal 95% VaR = 4.49%