Financial Risk Manager Part 2

Financial Risk Manager Part 2

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In the role of a credit manager at a large bank, you are tasked with evaluating the probability of default for your largest counterparties. Utilizing a simplified Merton model, which is designed to assess the vulnerability of firms to changes in their market valuation and financial health, determine how Companies P, Q, and R should be ranked. These firms, which do not pay dividends and operate within the same industry, have the given market value of assets, face value of debt, and annual volatility of asset values. Use the distance to default calculation to rank these companies based on their probability of default over a 1-year period.




Explanation:

The correct ranking of the counterparties, from most likely to least likely to default, is determined by calculating the Distance to Default (DtD) for each company. The DtD is a measure that approximates the number of standard deviations to reach the default threshold, with a higher DtD indicating a lower likelihood of default.

The formula for DtD, when simplified for a 1-year horizon and assuming small drift factors, is:

DtD=ln(VaF)σ\text{DtD} = \frac{\ln(\frac{V_a}{F})}{\sigma}

where:

  • VaV_a is the market value of assets,
  • FF is the face value of debt,
  • σ\sigma is the annual volatility of asset values.

Using the provided data:

  • For Company P: DtD=ln(10060)0.10=5.11\text{DtD} = \frac{\ln(\frac{100}{60})}{0.10} = 5.11
  • For Company Q: DtD=ln(150100)0.07=5.79\text{DtD} = \frac{\ln(\frac{150}{100})}{0.07} = 5.79
  • For Company R: DtD=ln(250160)0.08=5.58\text{DtD} = \frac{\ln(\frac{250}{160})}{0.08} = 5.58

Based on these calculations:

  • Company Q has the highest DtD (5.79), indicating it is the least likely to default.
  • Company R has a DtD of 5.58, placing it in the middle in terms of default likelihood.
  • Company P has the lowest DtD (5.11), making it the most likely to default.

Therefore, the correct answer is B. Q; P; R, with Q being the least likely to default, followed by R, and then P being the most likely to default.

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