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Financial Risk Manager Part 2

Financial Risk Manager Part 2

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  1. A newly appointed risk analyst at an investment bank is assisting in the backtesting of the institution's Value at Risk (VaR) model. Currently, the bank calculates its 1-day VaR at a 95% confidence level. However, in line with the Basel framework's recommendations, the bank is considering shifting to a 99% confidence level for the 1-day VaR estimation. Which of the following statements about this proposed adjustment is correct?

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Explanation:

The correct answer is A. The decision to accept or reject a VaR model based on backtesting results at the two-tailed 95% confidence level is less reliable using a 99% VaR model than using a 95% VaR model. This is because using a 95% VaR confidence level creates a narrower nonrejection region than using a 99% VaR confidence level by allowing a greater number of exceptions to be generated. This increases the power of the backtesting process and makes for a more reliable test than using a 99% confidence level. The explanation highlights the importance of understanding the difference between the VaR parameter for confidence (95% vs. 99%) and the validation procedure confidence level (95%), and how they interact with one another in the context of backtesting a VaR model.

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