
Answer-first summary for fast verification
Answer: Overnight examination by the junior analyst increased the desk's exposure to model risk due to the potential for incorrect calibration and programming errors.
The correct conclusion for the replacement of the VaR model is C. The overnight examination by the junior analyst increased the desk's exposure to model risk due to the potential for incorrect calibration and programming errors. The quick implementation of the new VaR model and the insufficient amount of testing done before its acceptance could lead to significant risks. This situation is akin to the JP Morgan London Whale case in 2012, where a new VaR model was hastily introduced without adequate testing, leading to a substantial increase in model risk and ultimately contributing to significant losses. The lack of exceedances in the new model's initial 6-week period does not necessarily indicate that the model is unbiased, as the model could still be underestimating risk due to calibration or other errors. Proper testing and evaluation by a senior member of the team, over a more extended period, are crucial to ensure the reliability and accuracy of a risk model.
Author: LeetQuiz Editorial Team
Ultimate access to all questions.
No comments yet.
For a thorough comparison, both the existing and new models are run concurrently for 6 weeks to compute the 1-day 99% VaR. Throughout this period, the new model does not report any exceedances and consistently produces lower VaR estimates than the old model. The analyst argues that the lack of exceedances indicates the new model's accuracy and urges the bank's model evaluation team to approve it. Following an expedited review by a junior analyst, which contrasts with the standard comprehensive evaluation process that normally spans several weeks and involves a senior team member, the evaluation team approves the new model for use by the trading desk.
Which of the following statements accurately summarizes the outcome of this model replacement?
A
Delta-normal VaR is more appropriate than historical simulation VaR for assets with non-linear payoffs.
B
Changing the look-back period and weighting scheme from 3 years, equally weighted, to 4 years, exponentially weighted, will understate the risk in the portfolio.
C
Overnight examination by the junior analyst increased the desk's exposure to model risk due to the potential for incorrect calibration and programming errors.
D
A 99% VaR model that generates no exceedances in 6 weeks is necessarily conservative.