
Financial Risk Manager Part 2
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You are managing a portfolio comprising 5,000 deep in-the-money call options, 20,000 deep out-of-the-money call options, and 10,000 forward contracts on a non-dividend paying stock, TUV. TUV's current stock price is USD 52, with an observed annual volatility of 12%, and the market operates with 252 trading days in a year. Assuming that each contract represents one share of TUV, which of the following values would be approximately equal to the 1-day 99% Value at Risk (VaR) for this portfolio?
You are managing a portfolio comprising 5,000 deep in-the-money call options, 20,000 deep out-of-the-money call options, and 10,000 forward contracts on a non-dividend paying stock, TUV. TUV's current stock price is USD 52, with an observed annual volatility of 12%, and the market operates with 252 trading days in a year. Assuming that each contract represents one share of TUV, which of the following values would be approximately equal to the 1-day 99% Value at Risk (VaR) for this portfolio?
Explanation:
The correct answer is C, which is USD 13,715. To determine the 1-day 99% Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the portfolio, we first need to understand the composition of the portfolio and the characteristics of the options and forward contracts it contains. The portfolio consists of:
- 5,000 deep in-the-money call options on TUV, which have a delta close to 1, meaning they behave almost like the underlying stock.
- 20,000 deep out-of-the-money call options on TUV, which have a delta close to 0, indicating they have minimal exposure to the underlying stock's price movements.
- 10,000 forward contracts on TUV, each with a delta of 1, similar to the deep in-the-money calls.
Given these details, the net delta of the portfolio is calculated as follows:
This indicates that the portfolio has a significant exposure to the underlying stock TUV, equivalent to holding 15,000 shares.
The next step is to calculate the 1-day VaR using the following formula:
Where:
- is the z-score corresponding to the 99% confidence level, which is 2.326.
- is the price per share of stock TUV, which is USD 52.
- is the delta of the position, which is 15,000.
- is the volatility of TUV, which is 12% per year or 0.12.
- is the time in years, which for a 1-day period is (assuming 252 trading days in a year).
Plugging in the values, we get:
This calculation provides an estimate of the maximum loss that the portfolio could experience with 99% confidence within a single trading day. The result is rounded to USD 13,715, which corresponds to option C in the given choices.