Financial Risk Manager Part 2

Financial Risk Manager Part 2

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You are managing a portfolio comprising 5,000 deep in-the-money call options, 20,000 deep out-of-the-money call options, and 10,000 forward contracts on a non-dividend paying stock, TUV. TUV's current stock price is USD 52, with an observed annual volatility of 12%, and the market operates with 252 trading days in a year. Assuming that each contract represents one share of TUV, which of the following values would be approximately equal to the 1-day 99% Value at Risk (VaR) for this portfolio?




Explanation:

The correct answer is C, which is USD 13,715. To determine the 1-day 99% Value-at-Risk (VaR) for the portfolio, we first need to understand the composition of the portfolio and the characteristics of the options and forward contracts it contains. The portfolio consists of:

  • 5,000 deep in-the-money call options on TUV, which have a delta close to 1, meaning they behave almost like the underlying stock.
  • 20,000 deep out-of-the-money call options on TUV, which have a delta close to 0, indicating they have minimal exposure to the underlying stock's price movements.
  • 10,000 forward contracts on TUV, each with a delta of 1, similar to the deep in-the-money calls.

Given these details, the net delta of the portfolio is calculated as follows: Net Delta (Dp)=(1×5,000)+(0×20,000)+(1×10,000)=15,000\text{Net Delta (Dp)} = (1 \times 5,000) + (0 \times 20,000) + (1 \times 10,000) = 15,000

This indicates that the portfolio has a significant exposure to the underlying stock TUV, equivalent to holding 15,000 shares.

The next step is to calculate the 1-day VaR using the following formula: VaR=α×S×Dp×σ×1T\text{VaR} = \alpha \times S \times Dp \times \sigma \times \sqrt{\frac{1}{T}}

Where:

  • α\alpha is the z-score corresponding to the 99% confidence level, which is 2.326.
  • SS is the price per share of stock TUV, which is USD 52.
  • DpDp is the delta of the position, which is 15,000.
  • σ\sigma is the volatility of TUV, which is 12% per year or 0.12.
  • TT is the time in years, which for a 1-day period is 1252\frac{1}{252} (assuming 252 trading days in a year).

Plugging in the values, we get: VaR=2.326×52×15,000×0.12×1252≈USD13,714.67\text{VaR} = 2.326 \times 52 \times 15,000 \times 0.12 \times \sqrt{\frac{1}{252}} \approx USD 13,714.67

This calculation provides an estimate of the maximum loss that the portfolio could experience with 99% confidence within a single trading day. The result is rounded to USD 13,715, which corresponds to option C in the given choices.