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Chartered Financial Analyst Level 1

Chartered Financial Analyst Level 1

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Which forecasting approach is most appropriate for companies operating in highly cyclical industries?

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Explanation:

Explanation:

  • Option A (Historical performance data): This approach is less suitable for highly cyclical industries because historical data may not account for macroeconomic fluctuations. It is more appropriate for industries with stable structures and low sensitivity to business cycles.

  • Option B (Management-provided forecasts): While useful when management has a reliable track record, this approach is not ideal for cyclical industries. Management lacks an informational advantage in predicting macroeconomic variables like GDP or commodity prices.

  • Option C (Analyst-driven discretionary forecasts): This is the most suitable approach for cyclical industries. Analysts use surveys, quantitative models, and historical precedents to account for industry-specific volatility, lack of comparables, or fundamental changes in the competitive or regulatory landscape.

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