Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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Given the following chart describing the claims of an auto insurer during a policy period, calculate P(C|M). (Assume that the number of male and female claims are independent of each other.)

Male (M)Female (F)Total
Claim (C)100200300
No Claim (X)4006001000
Total5008001300
TTanishq



Explanation:

Explanation

To find P(C | M), the probability of a claim given that the policyholder is male, we use the formula for conditional probability:

P(C∣M)=P(C∩M)P(M)P(C | M) = \frac{P(C \cap M)}{P(M)}

Where:

  • P(C ∩ M) is the joint probability of both a claim and the policyholder being male
  • P(M) is the marginal probability of the policyholder being male

From the table:

  • P(C ∩ M) = 1001300\frac{100}{1300} (100 claims by males out of 1300 total observations)
  • P(M) = 5001300\frac{500}{1300} (500 males out of 1300 total observations)

Now calculate the conditional probability:

P(C∣M)=P(C∩M)P(M)=10013005001300=100500=20%P(C | M) = \frac{P(C \cap M)}{P(M)} = \frac{\frac{100}{1300}}{\frac{500}{1300}} = \frac{100}{500} = 20\%

Therefore, the probability that a claim is made given that the policyholder is male is 20%.

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