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Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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An analyst is trying to establish the relationship between the return on stock X(Rx) and the return on stock S(Rs). Stock X is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The analyst has assumed a linear relationship as follows.

Rx=a+b×Rs+ϵtR_x = a + b \times R_s + \epsilon_tRx​=a+b×Rs​+ϵt​

Furthermore, the analyst has gathered the following historical data.

Expected return on stock X15%
Expected return on S10%
Standard deviation of return on stock X20%
Standard deviation of return on stock S15%
Correlation between returns on stock X and S0.3

Which of the following is the correct model that can be deduced using the ordinary least squares technique?_

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TTanishq



Explanation:

Explanation

For the linear regression model:

Rx=a+b×Rs+ϵtR_x = a + b \times R_s + \epsilon_tRx​=a+b×Rs​+ϵt​

The expected value equation becomes:

E(Rx)=a+b×E(Rs)E(R_x) = a + b \times E(R_s)E(Rx​)=a+b×E(Rs​)

To find the coefficients using ordinary least squares:

Step 1: Calculate the slope coefficient (b)

b=Cov(Rs,Rx)Var(Rs)=[Corr(Rs,Rx)×SD(Rs)×SD(Rx)]Var(Rs)=Corr(Rs,Rx)×SD(Rx)SD(Rs)b = \frac{\text{Cov}(R_s, R_x)}{\text{Var}(R_s)} = \frac{[\text{Corr}(R_s, R_x) \times SD(R_s) \times SD(R_x)]}{\text{Var}(R_s)} = \text{Corr}(R_s, R_x) \times \frac{SD(R_x)}{SD(R_s)}b=Var(Rs​)Cov(Rs​,Rx​)​=Var(Rs​)[Corr(Rs​,Rx​)×SD(Rs​)×SD(Rx​)]​=Corr(Rs​,Rx​)×SD(Rs​)SD(Rx​)​

Given:

  • Correlation = 0.3
  • SD(R_x) = 20% = 0.20
  • SD(R_s) = 15% = 0.15
b=0.3×0.200.15=0.3×1.333=0.40b = 0.3 \times \frac{0.20}{0.15} = 0.3 \times 1.333 = 0.40b=0.3×0.150.20​=0.3×1.333=0.40

Step 2: Calculate the intercept (a)

a=Rxˉ−b×Rsˉ=0.15−0.40×0.10=0.15−0.04=0.11a = \bar{R_x} - b \times \bar{R_s} = 0.15 - 0.40 \times 0.10 = 0.15 - 0.04 = 0.11a=Rx​ˉ​−b×Rs​ˉ​=0.15−0.40×0.10=0.15−0.04=0.11

Step 3: Final Model

E(Rx)=0.11+0.40×E(Rs)E(R_x) = 0.11 + 0.40 \times E(R_s)E(Rx​)=0.11+0.40×E(Rs​)

This matches option B exactly._

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