
Answer-first summary for fast verification
Answer: 40.27
## Explanation For the second quarter (Q₂), the dummy variables are defined as: $$D_{jt} = \begin{cases} 1, & \text{for } Q_2 \\ 0, & \text{for } Q_1, Q_3 \text{ and } Q_4 \end{cases}$$ The expected forecast for Q₂ is: $$\mathbb{E}(\hat{Y}_{Q_2}) = \beta_0 + \sum_{j=1}^{3} \gamma_j D_{jt} = -10.42 + 0 \times 6.25 + 1 \times 50.52 + 0 \times 10.25 = 40.10$$ For the third quarter (Q₃), the dummy variables are defined as: $$D_{jt} = \begin{cases} 1, & \text{for } Q_3 \\ 0, & \text{for } Q_1, Q_2 \text{ and } Q_4 \end{cases}$$ The expected forecast for Q₃ is: $$\mathbb{E}(\hat{Y}_{Q_3}) = \beta_0 + \sum_{j=1}^{3} \gamma_j D_{jt} = -10.42 + 0 \times 6.25 + 0 \times 50.52 + 1 \times 10.25 = -0.17$$ The difference between Q₂ and Q₃ is: $$Q_2 - Q_3 = 40.10 - (-0.17) = 40.27$$ Therefore, the correct answer is **40.27**.
Author: Tanishq Prabhu
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The seasonal dummy model is generated on the quarterly growth rates of mortgages. The model is given by:
The estimated parameters are , , and using the data up to the end of 2019. What is the difference between the forecasted value of the growth rate of the mortgages in the second and third quarters of 2020?
A
24.56
B
32.45
C
40.27
D
30.32
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