52 An analyst gathers the following information to calculate the equity risk premium (ERP) for the US market:

• Broad-based market index dividend yield: 2.4%
• Expected growth rate in the P/E ratio: 1.2%
• Real GDP growth rate: 2.8%
• Expected change in shares outstanding: 0.0%
• 10-year Treasury bond yield-to-maturity: 5.0%
• 10-year Treasury inflation protected security (TIPS) yield-to-maturity: 2.7%
• Risk-free rate: 2.1%

The ERP using the forward-looking Grinold-Kroner model is closest to: