An analyst gathers the following information on the following partial 1-year transition matrix for BB rated bonds and credit spread data:

Probability (%)	A	BBB	BB	B
	2.66	4.20	85.24	7.90
Credit spread	1.00%	1.40%	3.20%	7.00%

Assuming no default, the 1-year expected return on a BB rated bond with a YTM of 4.25% and a modified duration of 6.52 is closest to: