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An analyst estimates the following partial 1-year transition matrix:

| From/To | AAA | AA | A |

|---------|------|------|------|

| AAA (%) | 90.00| 7.00 | 2.00 |

| AA (%) | 1.00 | 92.00| 6.00 |

| A (%) | 0.10 | 1.50 | 87.00 |

Credit spread (%)

• AAA: 0.75

• AA: 1.25

• A: 1.75

The expected price change for an AAA rated bond with a duration of 3.7, when downgraded to an A rating, is closest to: