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An analyst estimates the following partial 1-year transition matrix:

From/To	AAA	AA	A
AAA (%)	90.00	7.00	2.00
AA (%)	1.00	92.00	6.00
A (%)	0.10	1.50	87.00

Credit spread (%)

• AAA: 0.75
• AA: 1.25
• A: 1.75

The expected price change for an AAA rated bond with a duration of 3.7, when downgraded to an A rating, is closest to: