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Chartered Financial Analyst Level 2

Chartered Financial Analyst Level 2

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An analyst is modeling a time series xtx_txt​ as an AR(1) process and performs the following regression on the errors of the model, εt\varepsilon_tεt​:

εt2=a0+a1εt−12+ut\varepsilon_t^2 = a_0 + a_1 \varepsilon_{t-1}^2 + u_tεt2​=a0​+a1​εt−12​+ut​

where utu_tut​ is an error term. If the coefficient a1a_1a1​ is found to be positive and statistically significant, the analyst can conclude that xtx_txt​:

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