A portfolio manager is assessing whether the 1-year probability of default of a longevity bond issued by a life insurance company is uncorrelated with returns of the equity market. The portfolio manager creates the following probability matrix based on 1-year probabilities from the preliminary research:

| | Longevity Bond |

|---|---|

| | No Default | Default |

| Market Returns | | |

| 20% Increase | 61% | 1% |

| 20% Decrease | 35% | 3% |

Given the information in the table, what is the probability that the longevity bond defaults in 1 year given that the market decreases by 20% over 1 year?