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Answer: Sometimes, a moderately adverse scenario from the past is made more extreme by multiplying the movements in all risk factors by a certain amount. However, this approach assumes there is a simple linear relationship between the movements in risk factors. This is not necessarily the case, however, because correlations between risk factors tend to increase as economic conditions become more stressed.
**Explanation:** B is correct because it accurately describes the limitation of scaling historical scenarios by multiplying risk factor movements. This approach assumes linear relationships between risk factors, which is problematic because correlations between risk factors typically increase during stressed economic conditions, making the linear scaling approach potentially misleading. - **A is incorrect** because it describes a valid approach to scenario building (considering forward-looking scenarios that haven't necessarily occurred in the past), but this is not the limitation being discussed. - **C is incorrect** because it describes valid short-horizon historical stress tests, which are different from the scaling approach limitation. - **D is incorrect** because it discusses the importance of senior management involvement in stress testing, which is a valid point but unrelated to the specific limitation of linear scaling of historical scenarios.
Author: LeetQuiz Editorial Team
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Sometimes, a moderately adverse scenario from the past is made more extreme by multiplying the movements in all risk factors by a certain amount. However, this approach assumes there is a simple linear relationship between the movements in risk factors. This is not necessarily the case, however, because correlations between risk factors tend to increase as economic conditions become more stressed.
A
One approach to scenario building is to assume that a large change takes place in one or more key variables. In general, as stress tests are designed to be forward-looking, it is useful to consider scenarios that have not necessarily occurred in the past.
B
Sometimes, a moderately adverse scenario from the past is made more extreme by multiplying the movements in all risk factors by a certain amount. However, this approach assumes there is a simple linear relationship between the movements in risk factors. This is not necessarily the case, however, because correlations between risk factors tend to increase as economic conditions become more stressed.
C
Sometimes, historical scenarios are based on what happened to all market risk factors over one day or one week (e.g., October 19, 1987 or September 11, 2001). These short-horizon stress tests can be supplements to stressed VaR and stressed ES calculations.
D
Senior management should challenge key assumptions in stress testing scenarios, or suggest new scenarios for consideration. Among other reasons, involving senior management in building scenarios makes it more likely that the stress testing will be taken seriously and used for decision-making.
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