
Explanation:
Since the returns of the two funds are independent and normally distributed, the combined (merged) portfolio has:
The portfolio weights are:
$50M / $250M = 0.20$ (20%)$200M / $250M = 0.80$ (80%)Because the returns are independent, the portfolio variance is the weighted sum of the individual variances (no covariance term):
We want :
From standard normal tables (or calculator):
Final estimate: ≈ 5.0%
Ultimate access to all questions.
Prudent Fund (USD 50 million AUM) has recently underperformed, prompting the institutional sales team to recommend merging it with Aggressive Fund (USD 200 million AUM). Prudent Fund’s returns are normally distributed with a mean of 3% and standard deviation of 7%. Aggressive Fund’s returns are normally distributed with a mean of 7% and standard deviation of 15%. Assuming the returns of the two funds are independent, senior management has asked an analyst to estimate the probability that the combined (merged) portfolio will generate a return exceeding 26%. The analyst’s estimate for this probability is closest to:
A
1.0%
B
2.5%
C
5.0%
D
10.0%