
Ultimate access to all questions.
In financial risk management, it is common to ask the "What if?" questions. To illustrate the point here, we will use the MGRM case as an example. The MGRM entered into long-term, fixed-price contracts to deliver oil products to end-user customers in 1993. In order to hedge, it implemented a dynamic hedging strategy called rolling hedge. However, since the spot oil prices fell significantly in 1993 and the oil price curve changed from backwardation to contango, the MGRM suffered a significant loss. We then consider a "What if?" question: what if the MGRM did not face any problem mentioned above (e.g., the spot prices did not fall significantly, and the price curve did not shift to contango)? What will be the MGRM's biggest worry?