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Financial Risk Manager Part 2

Financial Risk Manager Part 2

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A CRO at an investment bank has asked the risk department to evaluate the bank's derivative position with a counterparty over a 3-year period. The risk department assumes that the counterparty's default probability follows a constant hazard rate process. The table below presents trade and forecast data on the CDS spread, the expected exposure, and the recovery rate of the counterparty:

Year 1Year 2Year 3
Expected positive exposure (AUD million)141414
CDS spread (bps)200300400
Recovery rate (%)807060

Additionally, the CRO has presented the risk team with the following set of assumptions to use in conducting the analysis:

  • The investment bank and the counterparty have signed a credit support annex to cover this exposure, which requires collateral posting of AUD 11 million.
  • The current risk-free rate of interest is 3% and the term structure of interest rates remains flat over the 3-year horizon.
  • The collateral and the expected positive exposure values remain stable as projected over the 3-year life of the contract.
  • The expected positive exposure and the collateral are assessed by using the same discount factors.
  • The probability of default of the bank is 0% per year.

Given the information and the assumptions above, what is the correct estimate of the unilateral CVA for this position?

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