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A credit analyst at an investment firm is estimating the 99% credit VaR of a 1-year zero-coupon bond, the only debt issued by the firm. The analyst obtains relevant data presented below:
Face value of the firm's 1-year zero-coupon bond: CNY 630 million
The bond's expected 1-year probability of default (PD): 6%
The bond's 1-year recovery rate: 90%
Assuming the variation of the future value of the bond is solely due to the possibility of default, and the analyst's estimate of the value of the bond in 1 year at the 99% confidence level is CNY 567 million, what is the bond's implied 1-year 99% credit VaR?
A
CNY 2.52 million
B
CNY 3.40 million
C
CNY 3.78 million
D
CNY 6.30 million