Suppose an investor expects that the 1-year rate will remain at 6% for the first year for a 2-year zero-coupon bond. The investor also projects a 50% probability that the 1-year spot rate will be 8% in one year and a 50% probability that the 1-year spot rate will be 4% in one year. Which of the following inequalities most accurately reflects the convexity effect for this 2-year bond using Jensen's inequality formula?