
Explanation:
This question deals with the volatility smile phenomenon and how it differs between equity options and FX options.
Volatility Smile Patterns:
Deep Out-of-the-Money Call Options:
FBX Stock Options: When using the lognormal distribution instead of the implied risk-neutral distribution for deep OTM calls, you're underestimating the probability of large upward moves (since the implied distribution has thinner right tails for equities). This means you'll price the option relatively low.
EUR/JPY FX Options: When using the lognormal distribution instead of the implied risk-neutral distribution for deep OTM calls, you're underestimating the probability of large upward moves (since the implied distribution has fatter right tails for FX). This means you'll price the option relatively low.
Wait, let me reconsider this carefully.
Actually, the correct reasoning is:
Equity options: The implied risk-neutral distribution has fatter left tails but thinner right tails than lognormal. For deep OTM calls, using lognormal would overestimate the probability of reaching the strike price, thus pricing the option relatively high.
FX options: The implied risk-neutral distribution has fatter tails on both sides than lognormal. For deep OTM calls, using lognormal would underestimate the probability of reaching the strike price, thus pricing the option relatively low.
Therefore, the correct answer is A: Price the option on FBX relatively high and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively low.
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A committee of risk management practitioners discusses the difference between pricing deep out-of-the-money call options on FBX stock and pricing deep out-of-the-money call options on the EUR/JPY foreign exchange rate using the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model. The practitioners price these options based on two distinct probability distributions of underlying asset prices at the option expiration date:
Using the lognormal instead of the implied risk-neutral probability distribution will tend to:
A
Price the option on FBX relatively high and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively low.
B
Price the option on FBX relatively low and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively low.
C
Price the option on FBX relatively low and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively high.
D
Price the option on FBX relatively high and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively high.
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