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Answer: The USD, EUR, and JPY all depreciate at the same time against a basket of world currencies.
## Explanation **Coherence** in stress testing refers to the logical consistency and plausibility of scenario assumptions. Scenarios should reflect realistic economic relationships and market dynamics. Let's analyze each option: **Option A: The USD, EUR, and JPY all depreciate at the same time against a basket of world currencies** - This is the **most problematic** scenario from a coherence perspective - USD, EUR, and JPY are the world's three major reserve currencies - For all three to depreciate simultaneously against a basket of world currencies is economically implausible - Currencies typically move in relation to each other - if one depreciates, others often appreciate - This violates the fundamental principle that currency values are relative **Option B: Correlations between returns of commodities used for industrial production and returns of industrial sector equities increase** - This is coherent and plausible - When industrial production increases, both commodity demand and industrial company profits typically rise - Higher correlations during stress periods are common as diversification benefits break down **Option C: Yields on BBB-rated corporate debt increase as yields on AAA-rated short-term sovereign debt decrease** - This reflects typical flight-to-quality behavior - During stress, investors move from risky corporate debt to safe sovereign debt - This increases yield spreads, which is economically coherent **Option D: Monetary authorities respond to higher consumer prices by raising central bank lending rates** - This is standard monetary policy response to inflation - Central banks typically raise rates to combat rising prices - This is perfectly coherent with economic theory and practice Therefore, **Option A** provides the greatest cause for concern about coherence because it violates fundamental economic relationships between major world currencies.
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An internal auditor at a national bank is reviewing the assumptions of the scenarios that are used in the bank's stress tests. The auditor wants to ensure that the different sets of assumptions are plausible and that they exhibit the property of coherence. Which of the following combinations of assumptions used in a stress scenario would provide the auditor the greatest cause for concern about their coherence?
A
The USD, EUR, and JPY all depreciate at the same time against a basket of world currencies.
B
Correlations between returns of commodities used for industrial production and returns of industrial sector equities increase at the same time.
C
Yields on BBB-rated corporate debt increase as yields on AAA-rated short-term sovereign debt decrease.
D
Monetary authorities respond to higher consumer prices by raising central bank lending rates.