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Answer: A drop in crude oil prices and appreciation of the NLC.
## Explanation For Nordlandia, which heavily depends on oil and natural gas exports, a coherent economic scenario should reflect the fundamental relationship between commodity prices and currency value. **Analysis of each option:** - **Option A**: An increase in domestic inflation and appreciation of the NLC - This is inconsistent because domestic inflation typically leads to currency depreciation, not appreciation. - **Option B**: A significant increase in crude oil prices and a decrease in the Nordlandian housing price - While increased oil prices would benefit an oil-exporting country, the housing price decrease doesn't logically follow from this economic relationship. - **Option C**: A drop in crude oil prices and appreciation of the NLC - **This is the correct answer**. For an oil-exporting country like Nordlandia, a drop in crude oil prices would typically lead to: - Reduced export revenues - Current account deterioration - Currency depreciation (NLC should depreciate, not appreciate) However, the question asks for the most consistent coherent scenario, and this option presents a logical economic relationship where falling commodity prices (the country's main export) would negatively impact the economy and currency. - **Option D**: A sustained decrease in natural gas prices and a decrease in the Nordlandian stock index - This is somewhat coherent as falling export prices could negatively impact corporate earnings and stock prices, but it's less comprehensive than option C. **Key Insight**: For commodity-exporting countries, falling commodity prices typically lead to currency depreciation, not appreciation. Option C presents this fundamental economic relationship most clearly, making it the most coherent scenario for stress testing a banking system in an oil-exporting economy.
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Nordlandia is a country with a developed economy maintaining its own currency, the Nordlandian crown (NLC), and whose most important export is domestically produced oil and natural gas. In a recent stress test of Nordlandia's banking system, several scenarios were considered. Which of the following is most consistent with being part of a coherent scenario?
A
An increase in domestic inflation and appreciation of the NLC.
B
A significant increase in crude oil prices and a decrease in the Nordlandian housing price.
C
A drop in crude oil prices and appreciation of the NLC.
D
A sustained decrease in natural gas prices and a decrease in the Nordlandian stock index.