
Explanation:
To calculate the maximum possible daily 95% VaR, we need to consider the worst-case scenario for portfolio diversification, which occurs when the correlation between the two funds is +1 (perfect positive correlation).
Since the portfolio is equally invested:
When correlation is +1, portfolio volatility is simply the weighted sum: Ο_portfolio = wβΟβ + wβΟβ = 0.5 Γ 1.2599% + 0.5 Γ 1.5749% = 1.4174%
Given ΞΌ = 0 (as specified), and using z-score for 95% confidence level = 1.645: VaR = Portfolio Value Γ Ο_portfolio Γ z-score VaR = 1,000,000 Γ 1.4174% Γ 1.645 = 1,000,000 Γ 0.014174 Γ 1.645 = USD 23,316
The maximum possible VaR occurs when correlation is +1 because there is no diversification benefit. If correlation were less than +1, the portfolio volatility would be lower, resulting in a smaller VaR.
Therefore, the maximum possible daily 95% VaR is USD 23,316.
Consider a USD 1 million portfolio with an equal investment in two funds, Alpha and Omega, with the following annual return distributions:
| Fund | Expected Return | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| Alpha | 5% | 20% |
| Omega | 7% | 25% |
Assuming the returns follow the normal distribution and that there are 252 trading days per year, what is the maximum possible daily 95% Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimate for the portfolio? ()
A
USD 16,587
B
USD 23,316
C
USD 23,459
D
USD 32,973
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