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Answer: Implied volatilities are not available for assets that do not have actively traded options.
## Explanation Option C correctly identifies a key weakness of implied volatility as a predictor of future volatility: - **Implied volatility is derived from option prices** using models like Black-Scholes - **It requires actively traded options** to calculate meaningful implied volatility estimates - **For assets without actively traded options** (such as many individual stocks, commodities, or emerging market securities), implied volatility cannot be calculated - This **limits the applicability** of implied volatility as a forecasting tool across all asset classes Let's examine why the other options are incorrect: - **Option A is incorrect**: Broad indexes of implied volatility do exist (e.g., VIX for S&P 500, VXN for Nasdaq) - **Option B is incorrect**: Implied volatility is actually forward-looking, not backward-looking - it reflects market expectations of future volatility - **Option D is incorrect**: The volatility smile/skew phenomenon (different implied volatilities for different strikes/maturities) is a well-known market reality, not necessarily a weakness in the forecasting ability of implied volatility **Key Insight**: Implied volatility's main limitation is its dependency on liquid option markets, which restricts its use to assets with actively traded derivatives.
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Which of the following correctly describes a weakness of implied volatility as a predictor of future volatility?
A
Broad indexes of implied volatility do not exist, making forecasting the volatility of broad asset classes difficult.
B
Implied volatility is a backward-looking measure, which limits its usefulness in estimating future volatility.
C
Implied volatilities are not available for assets that do not have actively traded options.
D
In practice, implied volatilities differ for options with different maturities on the same underlying asset, even though theory suggests they should be the same.
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