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A risk analyst at a hedge fund is conducting a historical simulation to estimate the ES of a portfolio. The value of the portfolio at market close of any given day depends on the price of a stock and the level of an interest rate at the close of that day. The analyst uses closing values of these variables on the most recent 501 trading days as the historical dataset for the simulation and collects the following data, with Day 0 representing the first data point and Day 500 representing the last data point of the historical period:
| Day | Stock price (HKD) | Interest rate (%) |
|-----|-------------------|-------------------|
| 0 | 76.00 | 2.50% |
| 1 | 72.00 | 2.60% |
| ... | ... | ... |
| 500 | 94.00 | 3.80% |
What stock price and interest rate would be most appropriate for the analyst to use in the scenario of the historical simulation for Day 501?
A
The stock price would be HKD 89.05, and the interest rate would be 3.90%
B
The stock price would be HKD 89.05, and the interest rate would be 3.95%
C
The stock price would be HKD 92.00, and the interest rate would be 3.90%
D
The stock price would be HKD 92.00, and the interest rate would be 3.95%