The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) are two well-recognized volatility models. Suppose we have an EWMA and a GARCH (1, 1). Both have the same parameter attached on the $\sigma_{n-1}^2$, and $\sigma_{n-1}^2 = r_{n-1}^2$. Further assume that $\sigma_{n-1}^2$ is currently above the long-run variance, which model will forecast a lower day $n$ volatility?