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A risk analyst at a bank is estimating the distribution of credit losses for a portfolio of 30 identical loan exposures. The analyst assumes that the credit losses follow a binomial distribution. Each loan has the following characteristics:
Amount: SGD 500,000
Probability of default: 4%
Recovery rate: 30%
Average pairwise default correlation: 0.4
What is the standard deviation of losses on the loan portfolio expressed as a percentage of the size of the portfolio?
A
3.8%
B
5.8%
C
7.8%
D
8.9%