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Answer: USD -1.37
## Explanation The forward price formula for a dividend-paying stock is: \[ F = S_0 \times e^{(r - q)T} \] Where: - \( F \) = forward price - \( S_0 \) = current spot price = USD 67.68 - \( r \) = risk-free rate = -0.70% = -0.007 - \( q \) = dividend yield = 0.44% = 0.0044 - \( T \) = time to maturity = 2 years **Current forward price:** \[ F_0 = 67.68 \times e^{(-0.007 - 0.0044) \times 2} \] \[ F_0 = 67.68 \times e^{-0.0114 \times 2} \] \[ F_0 = 67.68 \times e^{-0.0228} \] \[ F_0 = 67.68 \times 0.9775 \approx 66.15 \] **New forward price after 1% increase in risk-free rate:** \[ r_{new} = -0.007 + 0.01 = 0.003 \] \[ F_1 = 67.68 \times e^{(0.003 - 0.0044) \times 2} \] \[ F_1 = 67.68 \times e^{-0.0014 \times 2} \] \[ F_1 = 67.68 \times e^{-0.0028} \] \[ F_1 = 67.68 \times 0.9972 \approx 67.49 \] **Change in forward contract value:** The value of a long forward position is: \[ V = (F_1 - F_0) \times e^{-rT} \] \[ V = (67.49 - 66.15) \times e^{-0.003 \times 2} \] \[ V = 1.34 \times e^{-0.006} \] \[ V = 1.34 \times 0.9940 \approx 1.33 \] However, since the question asks for the change in value and the forward price increased, the value of a long position increases by approximately USD 1.33. But looking at the options, USD 1.33 corresponds to option C. **Alternative calculation using sensitivity:** The sensitivity of forward price to interest rate changes: \[ \frac{\partial F}{\partial r} = S_0 \times T \times e^{(r - q)T} \] \[ \Delta F \approx S_0 \times T \times e^{(r - q)T} \times \Delta r \] \[ \Delta F \approx 67.68 \times 2 \times e^{(-0.007 - 0.0044) \times 2} \times 0.01 \] \[ \Delta F \approx 67.68 \times 2 \times 0.9775 \times 0.01 \] \[ \Delta F \approx 67.68 \times 0.01955 \approx 1.32 \] After discounting: \[ \Delta V \approx 1.32 \times e^{-0.003 \times 2} \approx 1.32 \times 0.9940 \approx 1.31 \] Given the options, USD 1.33 (option C) appears to be the closest match to the calculated change in value.
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A risk manager for an asset management firm is conducting scenario analysis on the valuation of a 2-year forward contract on stock MTE assuming a potential change in interest rates. The manager has the following information:
Assuming the forward contract is currently fairly priced, and all dividends are reinvested into stock MTE, what is the best estimate of the change in the value of the forward contract (per share of MTE) if the risk-free rate of interest were to immediately increase by 1%?
A
USD -1.46
B
USD -1.37
C
USD 1.33
D
USD 1.43