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Financial Risk Manager Part 1

Financial Risk Manager Part 1

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The spot price of oil is 106,theone−monthfuturespriceis106, the one-month futures price is 106,theone−monthfuturespriceis102 and the 12-month futures price is 98.Ifthespotpriceandtheoilfuturescurvedonotshiftatallduringtheentireone−yearperiod,whiletheoilproduceremploysthestack−and−rollhedge(e.g.,attheendoftheoneyear,thespotpriceisunchangedat98. If the spot price and the oil futures curve do not shift at all during the entire one-year period, while the oil producer employs the stack-and-roll hedge (e.g., at the end of the one year, the spot price is unchanged at 98.Ifthespotpriceandtheoilfuturescurvedonotshiftatallduringtheentireone−yearperiod,whiletheoilproduceremploysthestack−and−rollhedge(e.g.,attheendoftheoneyear,thespotpriceisunchangedat106), what will be the net performance of rolling the hedge forward without regard to the underlying future sale of spot oil (ignoring transaction costs)?

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