A portfolio manager is assessing whether the 1-year probability of default of a longevity bond issued by a life insurance company is uncorrelated with returns of the equity market. The portfolio manager creates the following probability matrix based on 1-year probabilities from the preliminary research:

Market returns	20% increase	20% decrease
Longevity bond	No default	Default
	61%	1%
	35%	3%

Given the information in the table, what is the probability that the longevity bond defaults in 1 year given that the market decreases by 20% over 1 year?