An analyst on the derivatives desk at a bank is valuing a 1-year put option on a stock index using a two-step binomial tree. The analyst gathers the following relevant information:

• Current value of the index: 3,405
• Strike price of the option: 3,500
• Dividend yield of the index (continuously compounded): 2.92%
• Risk-free interest rate (continuously compounded): 0.85%
• Factor for an upward move in the tree: 1.1850
• Factor for a downward move in the tree: 0.8439

Which of the following is closest to the risk-neutral probability of an upward move in the tree?