An analyst on the derivatives desk at a bank is valuing a 1-year put option on a stock index using a two-step binomial tree. The analyst gathers the following relevant information:

• Current value of the index: 3,405

• Strike price of the option: 3,500

• Dividend yield of the index (continuously compounded): 2.92%

• Risk-free interest rate (continuously compounded): 0.85%

• Factor for an upward move in the tree: 1.1850

• Factor for a downward move in the tree: 0.8439

Which of the following is closest to the risk-neutral probability of an upward move in the tree?